ZEV Mandate changes could delay £1.56 billion in UK EV home charging sales and installations, BEAMA warns

Weaker EV targets could also mean up to 12 GW less flexible charging capacity by 2034, undermining Government ambitions for a more flexible electricity system

Additional petrol, diesel and plug-in hybrid cars sold under the 50% scenario could generate 71MtCO2e over their lifetimes – close to a year of emissions from the UK's entire transport sector

London, UK – 21 August 2026 – Weakening the Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Mandate could delay up to £1.56 billion in UK EV home charge point sales and installations, according to new analysis from UK trade association BEAMA. Reducing the 2030 target could also slow the rollout of flexible charging capacity at a time when Government expects EVs to provide a growing source of flexibility to the electricity system.

Manufacturers across the UK have incorporated the existing sales targets from the ZEV Mandate into investment plans for the next decade. Some have planned investments approaching £100 million which would result in job creation in local communities. Manufacturers say significant reductions in the targets could force those plans to be reviewed.

BEAMA modelled what could happen if the Government reduced the 2030 target for zero-emission car sales from 80% to 50%, following the launch of a review published on Friday 14, August 2026. BEAMA estimates that the weaker trajectory could mean up to 1.7 million fewer home charge point sales by 2034 than under the existing Mandate, representing around £1.56 billion in sales and installations. That would delay demand manufacturers have already invested or planned to invest to serve.

The impact could also be felt across the electricity system. BEAMA estimates that reducing the 2030 target to 50% could mean up to 12GW less flexible charging capacity by 2034. That sits uneasily with the Government’s own Clean Flexibility Roadmap, which expects around 4.5GW of flexibility from EV smart charging by 2030. This contribution could become harder to achieve if EV uptake, and with it the rollout of charge points, slows.

Under the same 50% scenario, the additional petrol, diesel and plug-in hybrid vehicles sold could generate 71MtCO2e over their lifetimes. For scale, that is close to the emissions produced by the UK’s entire transport sector in a year.

Matt Adams, Head of Electrical Transport Systems at BEAMA, said: “Government needs to decide whether it is mandating or meandering. Manufacturers have invested millions against the trajectory the Government set. If the targets keep changing, the case for investing, expanding and creating well paid, highly skilled jobs that support communities, becomes harder to make.

“Ministers want EV smart charging to provide more flexibility to the electricity system, while considering a weaker Mandate that could slow EV uptake and the rollout of smart charge points.

“And there is a wider contradiction. People are being asked to use less water in their gardens as the country grapples with hotter, drier weather. Yet Ministers are considering changes that our analysis suggests could add 71 million tonnes of carbon emissions over the lifetime of the vehicles affected. If they are prepared to accept higher emissions from road transport, they need to explain where those emissions reductions will be made elsewhere.”

Andrew Clint, CEO, smart home energy technology manufacturer myenergi said: “The UK has built a world-class EV charging industry on the foundation of clear government policy, with companies like myenergi creating jobs, investing in innovation and exporting British technology worldwide. The Government should stick to the plan, provide long-term certainty for industry, and ensure the UK remains a leader in the transition to clean transport."

Paul Taylor, Managing Director, Em-lite, specialists in smart and prepayment metering manufacture, said: “It is clear from the Governments proposals they do not realise the impact on businesses and consumers of their messaging. Government acknowledge that we need to improve EV uptake, yet their messaging undermines this entirely. What this means is more expensive to run petrol cars will be on sale for longer and investment in the UK by charge point manufacturers will be reduced as the government increases uncertainty in the UK as a place to invest."

Melanie Lane, CEO, Pod, one of the UK’s leading EV charging providers, said: "While unwelcome news, this consultation provides an opportunity for the EV sector to reiterate confidence in the ZEV mandate. It has helped drive record EV adoption while sending a clear and consistent signal to the whole ecosystem, from manufacturers and charging providers to investors and drivers, that the UK is committed to an electric future. It’s vital that industry now rallies around the mandate and protects that certainty, ensuring we have the investment and infrastructure needed to enable EV adoption at even greater scale.”

Methodology

BEAMA modelled the Government's Option 3, which would reduce the ZEV Mandate target for new car sales to 50% in 2030, against the existing mandate trajectory. The modelling assumes an annual new car market of 2,020,520 vehicles, based on SMMT's 2025 new car registration total, and holds this constant across the period modelled. On this basis, BEAMA estimates Option 3 would result in 2.7 million fewer ZEV sales between 2027 and 2035, a reduction of 19% compared with the existing trajectory.
To estimate the impact on domestic charging, BEAMA assumes that 65% of the reduction in ZEV sales represents potential domestic 7kW smart charge point sales, based on 65% of drivers having access to a driveway. On this basis, the modelling estimates up to 1.7 million fewer potential domestic charge point sales by 2034. Please note this does not factor in second EV car purchases for households.
Applying an average purchase and installation cost of £900 for a 7kW domestic charger, BEAMA estimates that the 1.7 million fewer potential charge point sales by 2034 represent up to £1.56 billion in charge point purchases and installations that could be pushed into later years.
BEAMA also estimates the impact on potential electricity-system flexibility. At 7kW per smart charger, the foregone potential charge points under Option 3 represent up to 12GW of potential flexible charging capacity by 2034.
Emissions calculated based off average lifetime emissions of ICE vehicles per km up to 2029 and average lifetime emissions of plug-in hybrids per km from 2030-2034. The lifetime emissions of the additional sales of these vehicles is 71MtCO2e, equivalent to nearly an entire additional year of the transport sectors emissions.