EURIS Brexit Watch - 2018 Issue 3

12 February 2018

The biweekly Brexit Watch report monitors the short-term UK macro economic indicators to assess the impact of the referendum vote and the subsequent triggering of Article 50 on UK economy. The report also monitors indicators in 4 manufacturing industries, namely, Electrical (SIC 27), Electronic (SIC 26), Mechanical (SIC 28) and Fabricated Metals (SIC 25).

The main points in this issue includes:

  • Sterling pullback against the US Dollar lost some momentum in the first 2 weeks of February 2017. Notwithstanding, the month-to-date average in February 2018 was 12.3% higher than a year earlier.
  • Index of production stalled in the 12 months to December 2017, mainly driven by decline in mining & quarrying from the shutdown of Forties oil pipeline for repairs in most part of December.
  • The construction output, at constant prices, grew by 1.6% to £13.1 billion in December 2017 but fell by 0.2% compared to 12 months earlier. Main drivers for the annual fall were decline in repairs, maintenance & infrastructure (RMI).
  • Exports trade in value grew by 3.0% in December 2017 to £52.1 billion compared to twelve months earlier and imports also grew by 7.0% to £57.0 billion in the same period.
  • Turnover for the 4-industry group reached £106.7 billion in 2017, representing a growth of 7.2% on 2016. The group exported £42.1 billion in 2017, a growth of 12.8% on 2016 and the workforce now stands at 740 thousand.